| Week | Date | Result | Opponent | Score | ELO Before | ELO Change | ELO After | Win Prob |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Aug 30 2025 | W | Merrimack | 21-17 | 1102.9 | -5.9 | 1097.0 | 52.6% |
| 3 | Sep 6 2025 | L | Texas Tech | 14-62 | 1097.0 | -27.8 | 1069.2 | 1.5% |
| 4 | Sep 13 2025 | L | Buffalo | 28-31 | 1069.2 | +58.9 | 1128.1 | 6.5% |
| 5 | Sep 20 2025 | L | Florida State | 10-66 | 1128.1 | -29.9 | 1098.2 | 1.3% |
| 7 | Oct 4 2025 | L | Oklahoma | 0-44 | 1093.7 | +11.5 | 1105.2 | 0.6% |
| 8 | Oct 11 2025 | W | Massachusetts | 42-6 | 1105.2 | +86.8 | 1192.0 | 36.6% |
| 9 | Oct 18 2025 | L | Toledo | 10-45 | 1192.0 | -20.3 | 1171.7 | 5.6% |
| 10 | Oct 25 2025 | W | Bowling Green | 24-21 | 1171.7 | +14.7 | 1186.4 | 16.9% |
| 12 | Nov 5 2025 | L | Ball State | 13-17 | 1190.9 | +3.2 | 1194.1 | 38.8% |
| 13 | Nov 11 2025 | W | Akron | 42-35 | 1194.1 | +23.8 | 1217.9 | 32.7% |
| 14 | Nov 19 2025 | L | Central Michigan | 16-28 | 1217.9 | -9.7 | 1208.2 | 22.9% |
| 15 | Nov 28 2025 | W | Northern Illinois | 35-31 | 1208.2 | +22.3 | 1230.5 | 25.5% |